Forecasting Rice Paddy Production in Aceh Using ARIMA and Exponential Smoothing Models

Nurviana Nurviana, Amelia Amelia, Riezky Purnama Sari Riezky Purnama Sari, Ulya Nabilla Ulya Nabilla, Taufan Talib

Abstract


Indonesia targets Aceh to be one of the paddy production centers and be able to carry out self-sufficient production in paddy and become a national granary. However, in reality, Aceh's paddy production in its province is not consistent from year to year. This province has not been able to meet the food needs of paddy independently, so that it supplies paddy from other regions due to the difficulty of detecting the presence of a surplus of paddy. The purpose of this research is to estimate the results of paddy production in Aceh for the future. The mathematical model that can be used is a time series model namely Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Exponential Smoothing. The results of the estimation of  paddy production in the next 5 years using the ARIMA (1,1,3) model are 2000616; 2017549; 1903585; 1944499; and 1929810. While the estimation results using the Winter Exponential Smoothing model are 1625925; 1645196; 1687667; 1605530; and 1555213. ARIMA model (1,1,3) produces an MSE/MAD value of , while the Winter Exponential Smoothing model produces an MSE/MAD value of . Therefore, it can be concluded that the Winter Exponential Smoothing model.


Keywords


Paddy;Estimates; ARIMA; Exponential Smoothing.

Full Text:

PDF

References


R. Biswas, “Study on ARIMA Modelling to Forecast Area and Production of Kharif Rice in West Bengal,” in Cutting-edge Research in Agricultural Sciences Vol. 12, 2021.

N. Fitri, “Analisis Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengarui Produksi Padi Di Provinsi Aceh,” J. Ilmu Ekon., vol. 3, no. 1, pp. 81–95, 2015.

M. Setyowati, J. Irawan, and L. Marlina, “Karakter Agronomi Beberapa Padi Lokal Aceh,” J. Agrotek Lestari, vol. 5, no. 1, pp. 36–50, 2018.

BPS, Provinsi Aceh dalam Angka (Aceh Province in Figures) 2021. Aceh: Badan Pusat Statistik Aceh, 2021.

H. A. Yusuf, I. Djakaria, and Resmawan, “Penerapan Metode Double Moving Average Untuk Meramalkan Hasil,” J. Mat. dan Apl., vol. 9, no. 2, pp. 92–96, 2020.

M. N. Fawaiq and dkk, “Prediksi Hasil Pertanian Padi di Kabupaten Kudus dengan Metode Brown’s Double Exponential Smoothing,” JIPI (Jurnal Penelit. dan Pembelajaran Inform., vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 78–87, 2019.

Djafar, M. S. Ihsan, and Y. Purnamasari, “Peramalan Jumlah Produksi Padi di Sulawesi Tenggara Menggunakan Metode Fuzzy Time Series,” semanTIK, vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 113–120, 2017.

C. Madhavi Latha, K. Siva Nageswararao, D. Venkataramanaiah, R. Scholar, and A. Professor, “FORECASTING TIME SERIES STOCK RETURNS USING ARIMA: EVIDENCE FROM S&P BSE SENSEX,” Int. J. Pure Appl. Math., 2018.

Y. Wigati and dkk, “Pemodelan Times Series Dengan Proses ARIMA untuk Prediksi Indeks Harga Konsumen (IHK) di Palu-Sulawesi Tengah,” J. Ilm. Mat. dan Terap., vol. 12, no. 2, 2016.

N. A. Bakar and S. Rosbi, “Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Model For Forecasting Cryptocurrency Exchange Rate in High Volatility Enviroment: A new Insight of Bitcoin Transaction,” Int. J. Adv. Eng. Res. Sci., 2017.

D. P. Singh, P. Kumar, and K. Prabakaran, “Application of ARIMA model for forecasting paddy production in Bastar division of Chhattisgarh,” Am. Int. J. Res. Sci. Technol. Eng. Math., vol. 14, no. 43, pp. 82–87, 2013.

R. H. Shumway and D. S. Stoffer, Time Series Analysis and Its Applications. USA: Spinger, 2017.

et. all Amelia, “Forecasting Annual Coffee and Rubber Production in Aceh Using Exponential Smoothing,” in Regular Proceeding 3rd ISIMMED, 2019, pp. 3–10.

E. Prasetyowati, N. R. Imron Rosyadi, and Matsaini, “Estimated profits of rengginang Lorjuk Madura by used comparison of holt-winter and moving average,” 2020, doi: 10.11591/eecsi.v7.2031.

R. J. Hyndman, Forecasting: Principles & Practice. Australia: University of Western Australia, 2014.




DOI: https://doi.org/10.18860/ca.v7i2.13701

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Editorial Office
Mathematics Department,
Universitas Islam Negeri Maulana Malik Ibrahim Malang
Jalan Gajayana 50 Malang, Jawa Timur, Indonesia 65144
Faximile (+62) 341 558933
e-mail: cauchy@uin-malang.ac.id

Creative Commons License
CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.