Haversine-Based Geographically Weighted Panel Regression of Human Development in Gorontalo (2016–2025)

Debora Dwi Kurniawati, Henny Pramoedyo, Suci Astutik, Friansyah Gani

Abstract


Spatial disparities in human development indicate that socioeconomic factors may influence development outcomes differently across locations. This study aims to analyze spatially varying relationships between the Human Development Index and its key determinants in districts and cities in Gorontalo Province, Indonesia, during the period 2016--2025. The analysis uses balanced panel data and models human development as a function of mean years of schooling, life expectancy at birth, and real per capita expenditure. A geographically weighted panel regression approach is applied, with spatial relationships modeled using great-circle distances and an adaptive kernel weighting scheme, while a fixed-effects panel model serves as the global reference. The results reveal a clear spatial heterogeneity in the effects of the explanatory variables, where education consistently shows the strongest positive influence on human development in all regions, followed by health conditions. Economic expenditure exhibits a weaker and spatially varying effect and is not influential in the provincial capital. These findings underscore the importance of accounting for spatial heterogeneity in regional development analyses and support the formulation of place-based human development policies tailored to local conditions.

Keywords


Human Development Index; Geographically Weighted Panel Regression; Haversine Distance; Spatial Heterogeneity; Gorontalo.

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References


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DOI: https://doi.org/10.18860/cauchy.v11i1.40886

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